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From 20% to 80% Unrealized Value: When Should an Institution Question Its Reported Venture Performance?

By Frontierspace Ventures |

A high share of value still held can be normal, promising or worrying. Fund age and the evidence behind its largest marks explain which description fits.

Fund Age Changes What the Percentage Means

A high share of unrealized value is normal in a young venture fund because the companies have not had time to exit. The same percentage is more concerning in an older fund if reported gains remain on paper for years. Fund age, DPI, exit evidence and valuation quality determine which situation the LP is seeing.

NVCA's latest Yearbook reported 859 active unicorns with an aggregate valuation of $4.34 trillion in 2025. That large population of high-value private companies helps explain why pension funds can carry reported value for years while waiting for distributions.

A sample reported venture portfolio shows eighty percent unrealized value and twenty percent realized or distributed value.

Reported Value Versus Realized Cash

An 80% unrealized portfolio can still be promising. Its prospects depend on how much of that value relies on future financing rounds and exits.

Reported Value Versus Realized Cash: An 80% unrealized portfolio can still be promising. Its prospects depend on how much of that value relies on future financing rounds and exits.
View allocation data and assumptions
Data and assumptions for unrealized value donut
Portfolio segmentShareHow to read it
Unrealized value80%Reported NAV still dependent on future marks, financings, or exits.
Realized or distributed value20%Cash or realized value that has already reduced mark dependency.

Valuation policy, company progress, funding needs and exit paths give reported value its context.

RVPI at Different Stages of the Fund's Life

Early in a venture fund, cost is being converted into company stakes and few exits have had time to occur. High RVPI is therefore expected.

In the middle years, companies begin to separate. Some raise stronger rounds or produce partial liquidity, while others need more capital. Later in the fund's life, the path from remaining marks to cash becomes more central to the return case.

The Same Percentage Can Tell Three Stories

How the same unrealized percentage can mean different things
Fund stageHigh unrealized value may beWhat to examine
EarlyExpected because investments are recentInvestment pace, financing risk, and first operating evidence
MiddleNormal but beginning to separateFollow-on choices, mark quality, and early liquidity
LateA sign of strong remaining assets or delayed exitsHolding period, sale options, extensions, and stale values

Where the Unrealized Value Sits

Eighty percent spread across ten healthy companies is different from 80% concentrated in one old position. The second fund can lose far more from a single mistaken mark even when headline TVPI is identical.

The largest positions' shares of NAV reveal concentration. Recent price evidence and the actual security held explain each mark. A write-down case then shows how far reported performance depends on one valuation judgment.

The Path From a Large Mark to Cash

A supported valuation can still take years to realize. A strategic sale or IPO may provide a route to cash, while a tender or secondary sale may offer partial liquidity. Each depends on a willing buyer and workable terms.

“Wait for markets to improve” leaves both timing and valuation outside the manager's control. A stronger plan explains what could be sold at different prices and what milestone would justify waiting longer.

Two companies carried at the same multiple can have very different support for their marks. One completed an arm's-length financing six months ago and is growing with enough cash. The other remains at a three-year-old round despite slower growth. Similar reported values can therefore carry different confidence.

The event that could create liquidity and the extra capital required to reach it explain the holding case. A plausible sale value today provides an alternative. Together they reveal the cost and potential benefit of waiting.

Questions for an Older Fund

  • Holding period reveals how long each company has been owned within the fund's life.
  • Transaction prices and model-based marks rely on different kinds of evidence.
  • Company and fund downside cases show the effect of weaker remaining values.
  • Partial sales reveal cash already secured and the shares still exposed to the company.
  • An extension adds fees and administration costs, raising the return required to justify waiting.

Holding period and a plausible route to cash explain more than the unrealized percentage alone. The age and quality of the remaining companies determine its meaning.

How Many Dollars Are Still Unrealized?

In a $1 billion reported venture pool, 20% unrealized equals $200 million that still depends on future exits or marks. At 50%, the amount is $500 million. At 80%, it reaches $800 million.

The dollar view makes the decision more concrete. It tells the investment committee how much reported wealth remains exposed to valuation and liquidity risk.

A Downside Case for the Unrealized Portion

Suppose 80% of a $1 billion portfolio remains unrealized. A 25% write-down of that portion would cut reported value by $200 million.

This stress test shows how sensitive the reported result is to marks that have yet to become cash. It does not predict the loss the portfolio will experience.

On a $1 billion reported venture portfolio, unrealized value of 20%, 50%, and 80% equals $200 million, $500 million, and $800 million.

Unrealized Share of Reported Venture Value

As more performance depends on unrealized value, valuation quality has a greater effect on the pension's reported result.

Unrealized Share of Reported Venture Value: As more performance depends on unrealized value, valuation quality has a greater effect on the pension's reported result.
Unrealized valueRealized value
View unrealized-value assumptions
Data and assumptions for unrealized venture value
Unrealized shareReported venture valueUnrealized dollarsQuestion to ask
20%$1B$200MHow much has been distributed?
50%$1B$500MWhich marks drive remaining value?
80%$1B$800MWhat exit path supports the valuation?

Valuation policy and financing history explain how the mark formed. Public comparables and secondary prices add evidence, while DPI and fund age show progress toward cash returns.

How the Result Shapes the Next Question

For a young fund, financing needs and operating progress may be the main questions. For an old fund, evidence quality and realistic liquidity routes become more pressing. Specific companies give the percentage its meaning.

Each Large Position Has Its Own Timeline

Two funds can each report 70% of value as unrealized and carry very different risk. One may be four years old, with companies reaching normal financing milestones. The other may be twelve years old, with assets that have produced neither fresh price evidence nor liquidity for several years.

The dates of the last financing and latest operating update reveal the age of the evidence. Remaining cash needs and the next financing or business milestone show what could support or challenge the mark.

Looking at the companies behind RVPI turns it into questions a manager can answer. There may be sound reasons why strong gains have not yet become cash. An old mark with no fresh support still deserves less trust than a recent deal with an outside buyer.

Frequently Asked Questions

Is unrealized value bad?

Young venture funds naturally hold much of their value in unsold companies. Concern grows as the fund ages if gains still depend on marks with little cash returned or fresh evidence behind them.

What should institutions request from managers?

Recent financing and operating progress support or challenge major valuations. Exit assumptions and DPI progression show how reported value may turn into cash.